Total probability and Bayes' theorem for a screening test on water samples

Total probability and Bayes' theorem for a screening test on water samples

IB Year 6 | Grade 12
6 marks

A laboratory uses a rapid screening test to check samples of well water for a contaminant. Its records show that

  • \(10\%\) of the samples it receives are contaminated
  • a contaminated sample gives a positive result with probability \(0.9\)
  • a sample that is not contaminated gives a positive result with probability \(0.05\).
  1. A sample is chosen at random. Find the probability that it gives a positive result.[3]
  2. A sample chosen at random gives a positive result. Find the probability that this sample is contaminated.[3]

Solution:

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Answer:(a) \(0.135\) (b) \(\frac23\)

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