A biased die and the gambler’s fallacy

A biased die and the gambler’s fallacy

Secondary 2
TGM Original Questions

For a biased die, \(P(1)=0.15\) and \(P(6)=0.25\). Scores 2, 3, 4 and 5 are equally likely.

  1. Find the probability of a prime score.
  2. After 20 rolls with no score 1, a player says 1 is now most likely on the next roll. Do you agree? Explain.

Solution:

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Answer:(a) \(0.45\); (b) no—probabilities are unchanged and 6 is most likely.

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