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Probability

Probability

IP 4

A game first selects route \(A\) with probability \(0.4\), or route \(B\) otherwise. The player then either wins \(W\) or loses \(L\).

  1. Fill in the missing probabilities.

  2. Find the probability of each complete path: \(AW,AL,BW,BL\).

  3. Find the probability of winning.

  4. Explain why adding \(0.75+0.25\) does not give the probability of winning.

Solution:

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Answer:(a) \(0.25,\ 0.6,\ 0.75\). (b) \(P(AW)=0.30,\ P(AL)=0.10,\ P(BW)=0.15,\ P(BL)=0.45\). (c) \(0.45\). (d) Each winning probability must be multiplied by the probability of taking its route.

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