p-Values, Decisions and Parameter Inequalities

p-Values, Decisions and Parameter Inequalities

Junior College 2

The p-value is the probability, calculated under \(H_0\), of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme in the direction specified by \(H_1\) as the observed statistic.

Alternativep-value
\(H_1:\mu<\mu_0\)\(p=P(Z\leq z_{\rm obs})\)
\(H_1:\mu>\mu_0\)\(p=P(Z\geq z_{\rm obs})\)
\(H_1:\mu\ne\mu_0\)\(p=2P(Z\geq |z_{\rm obs}|)\)
Decision boundary

Reject \(H_0\) when \(p\leq\alpha\). Do not reject \(H_0\) when \(p>\alpha\). Equality belongs to the rejection boundary under this convention.

Deducing inequalities

  • To find a range of significance levels, compare \(\alpha\) directly with the calculated p-value.
  • To find a range of a null parameter such as \(\mu_0\), write the relevant signed critical-region inequality and solve it algebraically.
  • Keep the test statistic, tail direction and parameter inequality consistent; multiplying by a negative quantity reverses an inequality.
Two-tailed check

Always use \(|z_{\rm obs}|\) in a symmetric two-tailed p-value. The formula \(1-P(-z_{\rm obs}<Z<z_{\rm obs})\) fails when \(z_{\rm obs}<0\).

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