N2012 P2 Q5

N2012 P2 Q5

Junior College 2
7 marks

The probability that a hospital patient has a particular disease is \(0.001\). A test for the disease has probability \(p\) of giving a positive result when the patient has the disease, and equal probability \(p\) of giving a negative result when the patient does not have the disease. A patient is given the test.

  1. Given that \(p=0.995\), find the probability that
    1. the result of the test is positive,[2]
    2. the patient has the disease given that the result of the test is positive.[2]
  2. It is given instead that there is a probability of \(0.75\) that the patient has the disease given that the result of the test is positive. Find the value of \(p\), giving your answer correct to 6 decimal places.[3]

Solution:

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Answer:(i)(a) \(0.00599\); (b) \(0.166\). (ii) \(0.999666\).

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