2025 VJC P2 Q12

2025 VJC P2 Q12

12 marks

A hospital introduces a new medication regimen to help patients recover from a viral infection more quickly. Previously, the average recovery time was \(7.2\) days.

After adopting the new regimen, a random sample of \(40\) patients is observed, and their recovery times, \(x\), in days, are recorded. The results are summarised below. \[\sum(x - 7.2) = -42 \quad \text{and} \quad \sum(x - 7.2)^2 = 648\]

  1. Explain whether the hospital should carry out a one-tailed test or a two-tailed test.[1]
  2. Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the recovery times under the new regimen.[2]
  3. Carry out an appropriate test at the \(5\%\) significance level. You should state clearly the hypotheses for your test and define any parameters that you use.[4]
  4. Explain, in the context of the question, the meaning of 'at the \(5\%\) significance level'.[1]
  5. Explain whether it would have been sufficient for the hospital to take a random sample of \(10\) patients and record their recovery times under the new regimen in order to carry out the hypothesis test.[1]

It was discovered that an intern at the hospital had made an error in recording the recovery times. A random sample of another \(30\) patients was taken and their recovery times under the new regimen was taken and recorded by a senior researcher. The sample standard deviation was found to be \(1.7\) days and the sample mean time was denoted by \(k\).

  1. A test at the \(1\%\) significance level concludes that the average recovery time did not improve from \(7.2\) days. Find the set of values of \(k\).[3]

Solution:

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Answer:(a) One-tailed lower-tail test. (b) Mean estimate 6.15 days; variance estimate \(\frac{2013}{130}\approx15.5\) days². (c) \(z\approx-1.68760,p\approx0.0457442\); reject at 5%, sufficient evidence of reduced mean. (d) 5% false-positive probability under H₀. (e) No, not without further distributional assumptions. (f) \(k>7.2+\Phi^{-1}(0.01)\frac{1.7}{\sqrt{29}}=6.465613676\ldots\).

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